Gridiron Gazette: Goal Line Stand (Week 12)

One year removed from their 2nd FBCS title, the University of Mexico is in position to miss the playoffs for the first time in school history. Can the addition of WR Lee Evans sneak the Wildcats into the postseason, or is it too late for the defending champs?





Goal Line Stand (Week 12)
Cam Pannalist, Gridiron Gazette



How did we get ourselves into this mess? 11 teams, with just 2 weeks remaining in the season, have a shot at the postseason. Unlike it's NCAA counterpart, the FBCS takes pride in its "Everyone Has A Chance" setup, with 6 teams fighting it out in a bracket-style playoff. And instead of letting those 6 teams be determined by strength of schedule or margin of victory, the conference bases it solely on record (fortunately for the FAC-10, everybody plays each other at least once, rather than allowing schools to choose their own schedule).

Each and every game matters in a 13 week season, and nobody knows that more than the Mexico Wildcats. If it weren't for a .27 defeat to Gillespie State in Week 1 (every time those two teams meet, it's a dogfight), a 2.17 loss to Arizona-Kickery in Week 8 (Drew Brees exploded for 339 and 3 TD for UAK), or a 3.09 nailbiter to Twin City Tech (Mexico had the 2nd highest point output in the conference)... well, Mexico would be in 1st place rather than 11th.

The season, however, is far from over for Mexico and everyone else. After this week, the playoff picture should be a little clearer, but not by much. Here's a look at how everyone should finish the 2008 season:


Sure Things
1. Twin City Tech (vs. SU, AAM)
Without QB Tom Brady, the FAC-10 exposed the Red Raiders for what they are: A 1-trick pony... or did it? The acquisitions of QB Kurt Warner and WR Andre Johnson pushed TCT back into the #1 offense spot, as well as #1 in the FBCS.

2. Dublin (vs. BU, BHU)
DUBA's 6-game win streak came to an end last week in Mexico, but that hasn't changed the minds of Oktoberfest fans that their team should be #1. The Dublin running game is best in the conference, but unfortunately they have 3 guys for 2 spots. If the coaching staff can pick the correct 2 each week (so far, they have failed to do so) they're a lock for a playoff BYE.

3. Busch (vs. DUBA, GS)
Besides Twin City, nobody is playing better football right now than the Lattes. Three 80-point games in a row have them right where they left off 2007 when they rode the #6 seed all the way to the Conference Championship. This year's path to the PBR Llama Bowl should be a bit easier, with a top-4 seed waiting for them.



On The Bubble
4. Bud Heavy (vs. AAM, DUBA)
It's amazing to think that if it weren't for a 0.01 loss, Bud Heavy would be in sole possession of the #1 rank in the FBCS. Unfortunately, that game did happen, but it hasn't crushed anyone's spirits. If The King can steal a win in Ireland, they'll be a lock for the playoffs, but they'll need plenty of help from their run defense.

5. Golden (vs. AZK, SU)
Golden has been the quietest 6-5 team in the conference, one that nobody saw coming. They sold their soul to get QB Peyton Manning last season (giving up studs Larry Fitzgerald and LenDale White) and he's been anything but spectacular. The running game has been horrendous (prior to the acquisition of Michael Turner) with Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson battling injuries and poor play. And yet, here we talking about the Gryphons possibly getting the #3 seed? Simply amazing.

6. Gillespie State (vs. UM, BU)
Their loss last week to U-RAKE definitely put the Black Diamonds in a hole they might not crawl out of. Their final 2 games are against two of the hottest teams in the conference right now: Mexico (79.5 PPG in their last 3 games) whom they barely beat in Week 1, and Busch (84.3 PPG in their last 3) who hasn't allowed a 70 point game since Week 7. Their bubble is thin, and ready to pop if they don't get the production they expect from newly-acquired RB Thomas Jones.

7. Athol A&M (vs. BHU, TCT)
When the season schedule was released back in August, Athol AD Dave Grubb nearly vomited... 2 games against Twin City Tech, including the season finale? And sure the team hoped they'd have a playoff spot locked up long before then, but they don't, which means their game against Bud Heavy is a MUST, MUST, MUST MUST win before they host the Red Raiders next week.



Need Some Help
8. Mexico (vs. GS, RU)
3 losses by a combined 5.5 points is what may ultimately keep Mexico out of the playoffs for the first time in school history. Those wins, including one in which the Wildcats had the 2nd highest point output for the week, would have propelled them to #1 in the FBCS. The offense is finally clicking, but it may be too late for the defending champs. They'll need to win out, and get a lot of help, for them to be able to sneak into the postseason.

9. Rakeville (vs. WEY, UM)
In 2007, Athol sat atop the FBCS for over 6 weeks with one of the worst offenses in the league. This year, the Grays are following the same pattern of stellar defense and safe offense. #7 U-RAKE is 6-5, yet boasts the 11th ranked offense in the conference. A win against the Islanders is a must win, while their final game vs. the Wildcats could be quite a massacre.

10. Arizona-Kickery (vs. GU, WEY)
Az-Kickery fans were ecstatic with the way their team started the season. After a 3-8 last place 2007, the Kickers started things off 5-3 behind one of the best offenses in the conference. Now, after 3 straight losses and failing to score 57 points, Arizona is looking at another failed season. Their only consolation is a season finale at home against the expansion Islanders, but even that game isn't a sure thing.



Preparing For Next Season
11. Stardust (vs. TCT, GU)
Nobody is playing worse football than the S.U.C.H. right now. Since their Week 7 blowout of Gillespie State, the Crazy Horses have failed to break 53 points (42.6 PPG over their last 4 games). With Twin City and Golden coming to town, the boys from Vegas should start planning for 2009 (and a top-3 draft pick).

12. Weymouth (vs. RU, AZK)
The Islanders began 2008 with a plan; a plan that didn't involve 2008. They managed a few wins here and there, but management knew that with the depth and strength already present in the FAC-10, an expansion team would need time to become a contender. Their remaining schedule is light, and they might be able to pull off a couple upsets, but don't expect much from Weymouth other than the #1 pick in next year's draft.

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Week 12 Matchups
(1) Twin City Tech over (10) Stardust
(8) Athol A&M over (2) Bud Heavy
(5) Busch over (3) Dublin
(4) Golden over (9) Arizona-Kickery
(11) Mexico over (6) Gillespie State
(12) Weymouth over (7) Rakeville

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Power Rankings
1. Twin City Tech (+3)
2. Busch (+6)
3. Bud Heavy (-1)
4. Golden (-1)
5. Dublin (-4)
6. Athol A&M (-1)
7. Rakeville (+4)
8. Mexico (+1)
9. Gillespie State (+3)
10. Arizona-Kickery (-4)
11. Stardust (-4)
12. Weymouth (-2)

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League Notes
- WR Lee Evans transferred from Gillespie State to Mexico, just in time for the two teams' matchup this weekend in Guadalajara. He still hasn't decided if he'll live on campus or not, mainly due to his inability to speak Spanish.

- With just 2 weeks left in the regular season, 11 teams still have a chance to make the FBCS Postseason. "I'm lovin' it," said FBCS President Jason Sehorn with a mouthful of Southwest Style Crispy Chicken Sandwich.

- Weymouth and Rakeville will play this week in the Nobody Cares Bowl. The winner gets to telephone their mother and let them know how the game ended, since nobody will be coming to the stadium to watch.